Intelligence Briefings
Daily market intelligence synthesized from cross-venue price gaps, superforecaster consensus, breaking news, and proprietary signals across Polymarket, Kalshi, Metaculus and Manifold. Published each morning at 08:00 UTC.
Tuesday, May 5, 2026
ForecastMind Intelligence — 2026-05-05
# ForecastMind Intelligence — 2026-05-05 *Data as of 06:39 ET, May 05 2026 | Across Polymarket, Kalshi, Metaculus* ## Thesis The overwhelming certainty of Bitcoin trading above $80,000 today, as…
Monday, May 4, 2026
ForecastMind Intelligence — 2026-05-04
# ForecastMind Intelligence — 2026-05-04 *Data as of 22:17 ET, May 04 2026 | Across Polymarket, Kalshi, Metaculus* ## Thesis The surge in Bitcoin price markets, particularly for the May…
Sunday, May 3, 2026
ForecastMind Intelligence — 2026-05-03
# ForecastMind Intelligence — 2026-05-03 *Data as of 08:00 ET, May 03 2026 | Across Polymarket, Kalshi, Metaculus* ## Thesis The sharp increase in Bitcoin's probability of trading above $78,000…
Saturday, May 2, 2026
ForecastMind Intelligence — 2026-05-02
# ForecastMind Intelligence — 2026-05-02 *Data as of 07:19 ET, May 02 2026 | Across Polymarket, Kalshi, Metaculus* ## Thesis Bitcoin's rapid ascent and persistent bullishness, particularly around the $78,000…
Friday, May 1, 2026
ForecastMind Intelligence — 2026-05-01
# ForecastMind Intelligence — 2026-05-01 *Data as of 00:01 ET, May 01 2026 | Across Polymarket, Kalshi, Metaculus* ## Thesis The significant upward price action in Bitcoin, evidenced by its…
Thursday, April 30, 2026
ForecastMind Intelligence — 2026-04-30
# ForecastMind Intelligence — 2026-04-30 *Data as of 21:52 ET, Apr 30 2026 | Across Polymarket, Kalshi, Metaculus* ## Thesis The dramatic reassessment of NVIDIA's market dominance and Alphabet's ascendance…
Saturday, April 25, 2026
ForecastMind Intelligence — 2026-04-25
# ForecastMind Intelligence — 2026-04-25 *Data as of 08:00 ET, Apr 25 2026 | Across Polymarket, Kalshi, Metaculus* ## Thesis The surge in markets predicting a US-Iran diplomatic meeting by…
Friday, April 24, 2026
ForecastMind Intelligence — 2026-04-24
# ForecastMind Intelligence — 2026-04-24 *Data as of 08:00 ET, Apr 24 2026 | Across Polymarket, Kalshi, Metaculus* ## Thesis The increasing probability of a US-Iran diplomatic meeting by April…
Thursday, April 23, 2026
ForecastMind Intelligence — 2026-04-23
# ForecastMind Intelligence — 2026-04-23 *Data as of 06:06 ET, Apr 23 2026 | Across Polymarket, Kalshi, Metaculus* ## Thesis The most significant signal today is the sharp decline in…
Wednesday, April 22, 2026
ForecastMind Intelligence — 2026-04-22
# ForecastMind Intelligence — 2026-04-22 *Data as of 08:00 ET, Apr 22 2026 | Across Polymarket, Kalshi, Metaculus* ## Thesis The market is rapidly recalibrating expectations for a US-Iran diplomatic…
Tuesday, April 21, 2026
ForecastMind Intelligence — 2026-04-21
# ForecastMind Intelligence — 2026-04-21 *Data as of 08:00 ET, Apr 21 2026 | Across Polymarket, Kalshi, Metaculus* ## Thesis The sharp upward surge in Bitcoin price-related markets indicates a…
Monday, April 20, 2026
ForecastMind Intelligence — 2026-04-20
# ForecastMind Intelligence — 2026-04-20 *Data as of 12:36 ET, Apr 20 2026 | Across Polymarket, Kalshi, Metaculus* ## Thesis The sudden and dramatic decline in markets concerning US-Iran diplomatic…
Sunday, April 12, 2026
Market Brief — 2026-04-12
# Market Brief — 2026-04-12 ## Top Mover 32% of traders believe Bitcoin will be above $72,000 on April 12, a significant 43.0 percentage point decrease from yesterday, with $88,594…
Thursday, April 9, 2026
ForecastMind Intelligence — 2026-04-09
# ForecastMind Intelligence — 2026-04-09 *Data as of 00:10 ET, Apr 09 2026 | Across Polymarket, Kalshi, Metaculus* ## Thesis The sustained high probability for a 2026 US recession remains…
Wednesday, April 8, 2026
Daily Briefing — 2026-04-08
# Daily Briefing — 2026-04-08 ## Key Markets Today's briefing highlights continued investor focus on geopolitical stability and digital asset performance. The **Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15?**…
Tuesday, April 7, 2026
Daily Briefing — 2026-04-07
# Daily Briefing — 2026-04-07 ## Key Markets Today's briefing highlights several markets with notable probabilities. The **Elon Musk tweet count** remains a prominent focus. The market strongly favors Musk…
Monday, April 6, 2026
Daily Briefing — 2026-04-06
# Daily Briefing — 2026-04-06 ## Key Markets The cryptocurrency markets continue to be a focal point, with significant price expectations for both Bitcoin and Ethereum. The market is currently…
Sunday, April 5, 2026
Daily Briefing — 2026-04-05
# Daily Briefing — 2026-04-05 ## Key Markets The prediction markets are showing minimal movement this morning, indicating a period of consolidation across most major themes. Geopolitical events and economic…
Saturday, April 4, 2026
Daily Briefing — 2026-04-04
# Daily Briefing — 2026-04-04 ## Key Markets The prediction markets are showing strong conviction in **Bitcoin's short-term price action**, with the question "Will the price of Bitcoin be above…
Friday, April 3, 2026
Daily Briefing — 2026-04-03
# Daily Briefing — 2026-04-03 ## Key Markets The prediction markets continue to offer insights into a range of geopolitical and technological events. Notably, the **price of Bitcoin remains a…
Thursday, April 2, 2026
Daily Briefing — 2026-04-02
# Daily Briefing — 2026-04-02 ## Key Markets Geopolitical tensions remain a focal point, with markets assessing the duration of the Iran-Israel/US conflict. The probability of the conflict ending by…
Wednesday, April 1, 2026
Daily Briefing — 2026-04-01
# Daily Briefing — 2026-04-01 ## Key Markets Today's prediction markets show strong conviction in specific areas, particularly around Bitcoin's price trajectory and Elon Musk's social media activity. The market…
Tuesday, March 31, 2026
Daily Briefing — 2026-03-31
# Daily Briefing — 2026-03-31 ## Key Markets Today's market activity shows a strong consensus around two prominent figures and a key cryptocurrency. The **Donald Trump Truth Social posting market**…
Monday, March 30, 2026
Daily Briefing — 2026-03-30
# Daily Briefing — 2026-03-30 ## Key Markets Today's prediction markets show varied sentiment across several key areas. The **DHS shutdown ending after April 30, 2026**, is currently trading at…
Sunday, March 29, 2026
Daily Briefing — 2026-03-29
# Daily Briefing — 2026-03-29 ## Key Markets Prediction markets are largely focused on Elon Musk's tweet activity this week. The most prominent market, "Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets…
Saturday, March 28, 2026
**# Market Brief — March 28, 2026**
**# Market Brief — March 28, 2026** **## Top Mover** The primary market movement today came from the featured "Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by June 30?" market on Polymarket.…
Friday, March 27, 2026
Market Brief — March 27, 2026
# Market Brief — March 27, 2026 ## Top Mover Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15? moved -5.5pp overnight to 49% YES. This political market now sits near…
Thursday, March 26, 2026
Market Brief — March 26, 2026
# Market Brief — March 26, 2026 ## Top Mover Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by June 30? moved +4.0 pp in the last 24 hours, currently priced at 70%…
Wednesday, March 25, 2026
Daily Briefing — 2026-03-25
# Daily Briefing — 2026-03-25 ## Key Markets The cryptocurrency market continues to show significant conviction around Bitcoin's price trajectory. The probability of **Bitcoin trading above $70,000 on March 26**…
Tuesday, March 24, 2026
Daily Briefing — 2026-03-24
# Daily Briefing — 2026-03-24 ## Key Markets Today's prediction market activity highlights significant conviction in certain outcomes, particularly around the cryptocurrency space and the burgeoning "Backpack" ecosystem. The market…
Monday, March 23, 2026
Daily Briefing — 2026-03-23
# Daily Briefing — 2026-03-23 ## Key Markets Today's prediction markets show moderate conviction in several key areas. The price action of Bitcoin remains a focal point, with the market…
Sunday, March 22, 2026
Daily Briefing — 2026-03-22
# Daily Briefing — 2026-03-22 ## Key Markets Today's briefing focuses on significant upcoming political events and the volatile cryptocurrency market. The 2026 Slovenian parliamentary election continues to be a…
Sunday, March 15, 2026
Market Brief — 2026-03-15
# Market Brief — 2026-03-15 **## Top Mover** No significant market movers were detected in the last 24 hours. **## Crowd vs Experts** A significant gap between expert opinion and…
Saturday, March 14, 2026
Market Brief — 2026-03-14
# Market Brief — 2026-03-14 ## Top Mover The market for "Will George Russell be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?" saw the most significant movement in the last 24 hours.…
Wednesday, March 11, 2026
Market Brief — 2026-03-11
# Market Brief — 2026-03-11 **## Crowd vs Experts** The largest gap between expert opinion and the crowd is in the "Will Manchester United win the 2025–26 English Premier League?"…
Saturday, March 7, 2026
Market Brief — 2026-03-07
# Market Brief — 2026-03-07 ## Top Mover The Ethereum price market 'Will the price of Ethereum be above ,000 on March 7?' dropped 59pp in the last 24 hours…
Friday, March 6, 2026
Market Brief — 2026-03-06
# Market Brief — 2026-03-06 ## Top Mover The Bulls vs. Suns market moved +82.5pp, with the YES price now at 99.95%. Volume for the market was 2309665.6682319962 in the…