Will Germany strike Iran by April 30?
March
Consensus Probability
3%
Weak30%
Polymarket1% avg · 3 markets
Confidence is based on agreement between venues, number of confirming markets, and available liquidity. High disagreement or thin markets — interpret with caution.
Contributing Markets
| Venue | Market | YES | Volume | Role |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | Will Germany strike Iran by April 30? | 3% | $73K | standalone |
| Polymarket | Will Germany strike Iran by March 31? | 0% | $3K | standalone |
| Polymarket | Will Iran strike Germany by March 31? | 1% | $2K | standalone |