Superforecaster Consensus
Compares Polymarket prices against superforecaster consensus from Metaculus and Manifold. Large gaps signal that expert forecasters think the betting market is mispriced.
Why forecasters? Prediction market traders optimize for profit and react quickly to news. Metaculus forecasters optimize for calibration and use structured reasoning. When they disagree, it often means the market is reacting to noise while forecasters are anchored to base rates — or vice versa.
Signal guide
Metaculus
Crowd forecasting with track-record weights. Manually curated questions with precise resolution criteria. Weight: 1.5×.
Manifold
Play-money prediction market with a large active community. Probability is the live market price. Weight: 1.0×.
Poly HighPoly Low
Poly High: market prices it higher than forecasters. Poly Low: forecasters are more bullish.
What this means: Metaculus aggregates thousands of superforecasters with real track records. When their consensus diverges from Polymarket prices by 5+ percentage points, it often signals a mispriced market — either an opportunity or a risk depending on which direction.
Min gappp: