ForecastMind

Market Disagreements

When two independent prediction markets price the same event differently, that gap is a signal — it may reflect different participant bases, information, or simply mispricing. This page surfaces those gaps in real time so you can investigate them. Refreshes every 30 seconds.

9 active price gaps detected across Polymarket, Kalshi, Metaculus and Manifold. The largest gap is currently 27pp on Will Paloma Valencia win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?.

How this works: We scan top markets on Polymarket and Kalshi, match them by keyword similarity, and rank pairs by price gap. A 10pp gap means one venue says 60% while the other says 50%.

Why it matters for research: Persistent gaps can indicate one venue has fresher information, different participant expertise, or a structural pricing difference. Journalists and researchers use these gaps to identify under-covered stories or verify whether consensus is genuinely forming around an outcome.

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5pp

9 markets above 5pp threshold