EU/NATO country announces peacekeeping force in Ukraine by December 31?
Closes December 31, 2026
ForecastMind sees this +3.8pp above current market price; market at 12% may be underpriced with macro signals showing GBP/USD -0.230 ↓, VIX +10.1% ↑ (low confidence — limited signal data).
Signal breakdown
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$4K
Liquidity
$17K
Bid / Ask
10% / 13%
Spread
3.00pp
Expert Signal
12%
Bayesian YES estimate
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "EU/NATO country announces peacekeeping force in Ukraine by December 31?" at 12% YES / 88% NO. In the last 24 hours, $4K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 12%. The bid-ask spread is 3.00 percentage points. The market closes on December 31, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-04-13). "EU/NATO country announces peacekeeping force in Ukraine by December 31?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 12%, NO 88%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1124829
This event has 2 active outcome markets. December 31: 12%, June 30: 4%. Implied probability of none resolving YES: ~85%.
EU/NATO country announces peacekeeping force in Ukraine
Topic Intelligence
✦ AI Analysis
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Price History
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Key Moments
First recorded
12% YES
Apr 13, 2026
Current
12% YES (+0.0pp recent)
Apr 13, 2026
Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
+4.3%
EV per $ wagered
-0.6%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this