Markets/Taiwanese Premier Cho Jung-tai out by June 30, 2026?

Taiwanese Premier Cho Jung-tai out by June 30, 2026?

Market Price

4%YES

96%NO

FM Estimate

Vol 24h$18K

Liquidity$20K

Bid / Ask3% / 6%

Spread2.40pp

ClosesJun 30, 2026

Historical patterns-1.0pp

Macro fundamentals+0.4pp

low confidence · 2 signals

✦ Deep AI Analysis🔒 PRO

The market's precipitous 15pp decline over seven trading sessions reflects mounting uncertainty around the diplomatic timeline. Cross-venue signals show institutional venues pricing 6pp below Polymarket.

The FM model flags a structural overpricing: with less than 10 days to expiry and no confirmed diplomatic channel active, the Bayesian update pushes the model estimate well below current market price. Three correlated outcome markets collectively imply only a 23% chance any deadline resolves YES.

Watch for: official bilateral statements, foreign ministry press briefings, and whether the longer-dated outcome markets begin to converge as a leading indicator of changed expectations.

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

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Wikipedia Attention

Outcome Markets2 markets

This event has 2 active outcome markets. December 31, 2026: 22%, June 30, 2026: 4%. Implied probability of none resolving YES: ~74%.