Markets/Will Derek Merrin be the Republican nominee for OH-09?

Will Derek Merrin be the Republican nominee for OH-09?

Market Price

86%YES

14%NO

FM Estimate

74%

Gap Signal

↓Overpriced

3.0pp

Vol 24h$961

Liquidity$12K

Bid / Ask73% / 80%

Spread7.00pp

ClosesMay 5, 2026

Macro fundamentals-5.6pp

Historical patterns-1.0pp

medium confidence · 2 signals

✦ Deep AI Analysis🔒 PRO

The market's precipitous 15pp decline over seven trading sessions reflects mounting uncertainty around the diplomatic timeline. Cross-venue signals show institutional venues pricing 6pp below Polymarket.

The FM model flags a structural overpricing: with less than 10 days to expiry and no confirmed diplomatic channel active, the Bayesian update pushes the model estimate well below current market price. Three correlated outcome markets collectively imply only a 23% chance any deadline resolves YES.

Watch for: official bilateral statements, foreign ministry press briefings, and whether the longer-dated outcome markets begin to converge as a leading indicator of changed expectations.

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

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Wikipedia Attention

Outcome Markets4 markets

4 deadline markets. Combined YES = 106% — 6pp excess suggests collective overpricing.

Derek Merrin be the Republican nominee for OH

Derek Merrin be the Republican nominee for OH-09

86%

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18%

Madison Sheahan be the Republican nominee for

Madison Sheahan be the Republican nominee for OH-09

Price History · 30 days

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Price History

No historical data yet

Cross-Venue Intelligence2 venues

VenueProb.YES %vs Poly

Polymarket

77%anchor

PredictIt

——

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will Derek Merrin be the Republican nominee for OH-09?" at 86% YES / 14% NO. In the last 24 hours, $961 has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 77%. The bid-ask spread is 7.00pp. The market closes on May 5, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-05-02). "Will Derek Merrin be the Republican nominee for OH-09?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 86%, NO 14%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1195381