Will Otto Ritter win the 2026 Santa Cruz gubernatorial election?
Closes April 19, 2026
ForecastMind sees this -1.0pp below current market price; market at 19% may be overpriced with macro signals showing USD/RUB -1.2% ↓, Oil -2.1% ↓, VIX +4.0% ↑ (low confidence — limited signal data).
Signal breakdown
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$5K
Liquidity
$12K
Bid / Ask
19% / 22%
Spread
2.60pp
Expert Signal
19%
Bayesian YES estimate
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Will Otto Ritter win the 2026 Santa Cruz gubernatorial election?" at 21% YES / 79% NO. In the last 24 hours, $5K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 19%. The bid-ask spread is 2.60 percentage points. The market closes on April 19, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-04-13). "Will Otto Ritter win the 2026 Santa Cruz gubernatorial election?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 21%, NO 79%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1228214
This event has 10 active outcome markets. Juan Pablo Velasco: 79%, Otto Ritter: 21%, Guido Eduardo Nayar: 0%.
Otto Ritter win the 2026 Santa Cruz gubernatorial elect
Topic Intelligence
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Price History
Export CSVPrice History
Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
+1.2%
EV per $ wagered
-0.3%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this