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Markets/Will the Democratic Party win the CA-16 House seat?
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Will the Democratic Party win the CA-16 House seat?

Closes November 3, 2026

ForecastMind Intelligence Score
Medium confidence · 2 signals
91%FIS
−3ppvs market 94%
overpriced

ForecastMind sees this -2.6pp below current market price; market at 94% may be overpriced with macro signals showing VIX -4.1% ↓, S&P +1.0% ↑, DXY -0.2% ↓.

Signal breakdown

MacroVIX -4.1% ↓, S&P +1.0% ↑, DXY -0.2% ↓
-4.8pp
HistoryUSA very_negative CVL → -1.0pp avg (n=74) [recent event]
-1.0pp
Live compute05:24 PM

Polymarket Price

94%YES
7%NO

Volume 24h

$2K

Liquidity

$33K

Bid / Ask

93% / 94%

Spread

1.00pp

Expert Signal

94%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp
confidence21%
methodensemble

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will the Democratic Party win the CA-16 House seat?" at 94% YES / 6% NO. In the last 24 hours, $2K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 94%. The bid-ask spread is 1.00 percentage points. The market closes on November 3, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-04-14). "Will the Democratic Party win the CA-16 House seat?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 94%, NO 6%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1281045

Topic Intelligence

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

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Price History

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Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

%
1%Market: YES 94%99%
Buy YES@ 94¢
Edge

+0.5%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly7.7%
½ Kelly3.8%
Buy NO@ 6¢

-7.7%

EV per $ wagered

Buy YES—+0.5% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 7.7%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this