Markets/Will the Democratic Party win the FL-22 House seat?

Will the Democratic Party win the FL-22 House seat?

Market Price

55%YES

45%NO

FM Estimate

53%

Vol 24h$4K

Liquidity$24K

Bid / Ask54% / 55%

Spread1.00pp

ClosesNov 3, 2026

Macro fundamentals-3.2pp

Historical patterns-1.0pp

low confidence · 2 signals

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The market's precipitous 15pp decline over seven trading sessions reflects mounting uncertainty around the diplomatic timeline. Cross-venue signals show institutional venues pricing 6pp below Polymarket.

The FM model flags a structural overpricing: with less than 10 days to expiry and no confirmed diplomatic channel active, the Bayesian update pushes the model estimate well below current market price. Three correlated outcome markets collectively imply only a 23% chance any deadline resolves YES.

Watch for: official bilateral statements, foreign ministry press briefings, and whether the longer-dated outcome markets begin to converge as a leading indicator of changed expectations.

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

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Wikipedia Attention

Outcome Markets45 markets

45 deadline markets. Combined YES = 2054% — 1954pp excess suggests collective overpricing.

the Democratic Party

Democratic Party win the CA-15 House seat

96%

the Democratic Party

Democratic Party win the IL-03 House seat

95%

the Democratic Party

Democratic Party win the FL-22 House seat

55%

Price History · 30 days

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Price History

No historical data yet

Cross-Venue Intelligence2 venues

VenueProb.YES %vs Poly

Polymarket

—anchor

Kalshi

89%—

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will the Democratic Party win the FL-22 House seat?" at 55% YES / 45% NO. In the last 24 hours, $4K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 54%. The bid-ask spread is 1.00pp. The market closes on November 3, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-04-27). "Will the Democratic Party win the FL-22 House seat?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 55%, NO 45%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1283113