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Markets/Will the Republican Party win the GA-09 House seat?
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Will the Republican Party win the GA-09 House seat?

Closes November 3, 2026

ForecastMind Intelligence Score
Low confidence · 2 signals
90%FIS
−2ppvs market 92%
overpriced

ForecastMind sees this -1.9pp below current market price; market at 92% may be overpriced with macro signals showing VIX -18.3% ↓ (low confidence — limited signal data).

Signal breakdown

MacroVIX -18.3% ↓
-3.2pp
HistoryUSA very_negative CVL → -1.0pp avg (n=74) [recent event]
-1.0pp
Live compute05:37 AM

Polymarket Price

92%YES
9%NO

Volume 24h

$2K

Liquidity

$14K

Bid / Ask

91% / 92%

Spread

1.00pp

Expert Signal

92%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp
confidence21%
methodensemble

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will the Republican Party win the GA-09 House seat?" at 92% YES / 8% NO. In the last 24 hours, $2K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 92%. The bid-ask spread is 1.00 percentage points. The market closes on November 3, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-04-09). "Will the Republican Party win the GA-09 House seat?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 92%, NO 8%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1283224

Topic Intelligence

Cross-Venue Intelligence2 venues
VenueYES %vs Poly
Polymarket—anchor
PredictIt——

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

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Price History

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Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

%
1%Market: YES 92%99%
Buy YES@ 92¢
Edge

+0.5%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly5.9%
½ Kelly2.9%
Buy NO@ 8¢

-5.9%

EV per $ wagered

Buy YES—+0.5% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 5.9%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this