Will the Republican Party win the IL-02 House seat?
5%YES
95%NO
Vol 24h$62
Liquidity$18K
Bid / Ask4% / 6%
Spread2.00pp
ClosesNov 3, 2026
FM Estimate
4%Market Price
5%↑ Overpriced 1.0pp
Historical patterns-1.0pp
Macro fundamentals-0.9pp
low confidence · 2 signals
Wikipedia Attention
Price History · 30 days
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✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Will the Republican Party win the IL-02 House seat?" at 5% YES / 95% NO. In the last 24 hours, $62 has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 5%. The bid-ask spread is 2.00pp. The market closes on November 3, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-04-18). "Will the Republican Party win the IL-02 House seat?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 5%, NO 95%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1283328