Markets/Will the Republican Party win the NY-16 House seat?

Will the Republican Party win the NY-16 House seat?

Market Price

50%YES

50%NO

FM Estimate

51%

Vol 24h$10K

Liquidity$2

ClosesNov 3, 2026

Macro fundamentals+4.6pp

Historical patterns-1.0pp

low confidence · 2 signals

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The market's precipitous 15pp decline over seven trading sessions reflects mounting uncertainty around the diplomatic timeline. Cross-venue signals show institutional venues pricing 6pp below Polymarket.

The FM model flags a structural overpricing: with less than 10 days to expiry and no confirmed diplomatic channel active, the Bayesian update pushes the model estimate well below current market price. Three correlated outcome markets collectively imply only a 23% chance any deadline resolves YES.

Watch for: official bilateral statements, foreign ministry press briefings, and whether the longer-dated outcome markets begin to converge as a leading indicator of changed expectations.

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

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Price History · 30 days

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Price History

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Cross-Venue Intelligence2 venues

VenueProb.YES %vs Poly

Polymarket

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PredictIt

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Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will the Republican Party win the NY-16 House seat?" at 50% YES / 50% NO. In the last 24 hours, $10K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 49%. The market closes on November 3, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-04-28). "Will the Republican Party win the NY-16 House seat?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 50%, NO 50%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1284322