Will August be the best month for Bitcoin in 2026?
Closes January 1, 2027
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$55
Liquidity
$8K
Bid / Ask
9% / 10%
Spread
1.00pp
Expert Signal
10%
Bayesian YES estimate
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Will August be the best month for Bitcoin in 2026?" at 10% YES / 90% NO. In the last 24 hours, $55 has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 10%. The bid-ask spread is 1.00 percentage points. The market closes on January 1, 2027.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-04-01). "Will August be the best month for Bitcoin in 2026?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 10%, NO 90%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1296001
This event has 9 active outcome markets. December be the best month for Bitcoin in 202: 17%, October be the best month for Bitcoin in 2026: 16%, September be the best month for Bitcoin in 20: 12%. Implied probability of none resolving YES: ~18%.
August be the best month for Bitcoin in 2026?
Topic Intelligence
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Price History
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Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
+5.3%
EV per $ wagered
-0.6%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this