Markets/Will Shabana Mahmood be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?

Will Shabana Mahmood be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?

Market Price

2%YES

98%NO

FM Estimate

1.8%

Vol 24h$222K

Liquidity$34K

Bid / Ask2% / 2%

Spread0.10pp

ClosesDec 31, 2026

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The market's precipitous 15pp decline over seven trading sessions reflects mounting uncertainty around the diplomatic timeline. Cross-venue signals show institutional venues pricing 6pp below Polymarket.

The FM model flags a structural overpricing: with less than 10 days to expiry and no confirmed diplomatic channel active, the Bayesian update pushes the model estimate well below current market price. Three correlated outcome markets collectively imply only a 23% chance any deadline resolves YES.

Watch for: official bilateral statements, foreign ministry press briefings, and whether the longer-dated outcome markets begin to converge as a leading indicator of changed expectations.

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

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Wikipedia Attention

Outcome Markets35 markets

35 deadline markets. Combined YES = 187% — 87pp excess suggests collective overpricing.

no next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom

no next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom be appo

34%

Angela Rayner be the next Prime Minister of U

Angela Rayner be the next Prime Minister of United K

26%

Shabana Mahmood be the next Prime Minister of

Shabana Mahmood be the next Prime Minister of the Un

Price History · 30 days

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Price History

MarketFM Estimate

+2.7pp

Cross-Venue Intelligence2 venues

VenueProb.YES %vs Poly

Polymarket

2%anchor

Kalshi

——

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will Shabana Mahmood be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?" at 2% YES / 98% NO. In the last 24 hours, $222K has been traded. The bid-ask spread is 0.10pp. The market closes on December 31, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-05-05). "Will Shabana Mahmood be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 2%, NO 98%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1343461