Market Closed
This market has resolved and is no longer trading. Prices shown are the final recorded values.
Penguins vs. Islanders
Closed March 30, 2026
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$723K
Liquidity
$22K
Bid / Ask
100% / 100%
Spread
0.10pp
Expert Signal
43%
Bayesian YES estimate
Event Distribution
Penguins vs. Islanders
5 related outcomes · highlighted = this market
Price History
Export CSVPrice History
Key Moments
First recorded
46% YES
Mar 30, 2026
Crossed 50% — now favored YES
88%
Mar 31, 2026
Biggest move: +41.0pp
47% → 88%
Mar 31, 2026
Current
88% YES (+41.0pp recent)
Mar 31, 2026
Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
+0.0%
EV per $ wagered
+0.0%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Penguins vs. Islanders" at 100% YES / 0% NO. In the last 24 hours, $723K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 43%. The bid-ask spread is 0.10 percentage points. The market closes on March 30, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-03-31). "Penguins vs. Islanders." Prediction market snapshot: YES 100%, NO 0%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1492901
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.