ForecastMind

Market Closed

This market has resolved and is no longer trading. Prices shown are the final recorded values.

Markets/Blues vs. Ducks
Share on X

Blues vs. Ducks

Closed April 4, 2026

Polymarket Price

96%YES
4%NO

Volume 24h

$855K

Liquidity

$52K

Bid / Ask

99% / 99%

Spread

0.20pp

Expert Signal

96%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp
confidence21%
methodensemble

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Blues vs. Ducks" at 96% YES / 4% NO. In the last 24 hours, $855K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 96%. The bid-ask spread is 0.20 percentage points. The market closes on April 4, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-04-04). "Blues vs. Ducks." Prediction market snapshot: YES 96%, NO 4%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1524908

Outcome Markets5 markets

This event has 5 active outcome markets. Blues vs. Ducks: O/U 4.5: 100%, Blues vs. Ducks: O/U 5.5: 99%, Blues vs. Ducks: 96%.

Topic Intelligence

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

Export CSV

Price History

+51.6pp

Key Moments

First recorded

45% YES

Apr 3, 2026

Crossed 50% — now favored YES

63%

Apr 4, 2026

Biggest move: +33.6pp

63% → 96%

Apr 4, 2026

Current

96% YES (+33.6pp recent)

Apr 4, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

%
1%Market: YES 96%99%
Buy YES@ 96¢

-0.1%

EV per $ wagered

Buy NO@ 4¢
Edge

+1.3%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly0.1%
½ Kelly0.0%
Buy NO+1.3% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 0.1%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this