Market Closed
This market has resolved and is no longer trading. Prices shown are the final recorded values.
Lightning vs. Senators
Closed April 7, 2026
Markets appear correctly priced with macro signals showing USD/RUB -0.4% ↓, Oil -10.0% ↓, VIX +6.7% ↑ (low confidence — limited signal data).
Signal breakdown
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$1.2M
Liquidity
$323K
Expert Signal
2%
Bayesian YES estimate
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Lightning vs. Senators" at 0% YES / 100% NO. In the last 24 hours, $1.2M has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 2%. The market closes on April 7, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-04-08). "Lightning vs. Senators." Prediction market snapshot: YES 0%, NO 100%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1559302
This event has 7 active outcome markets. Lightning vs. Senators: O/U 6.5: 100%, Lightning vs. Senators: O/U 5.5: 100%, Lightning vs. Senators: O/U 4.5: 100%.
Lightning vs. Senators
Topic Intelligence
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Price History
Export CSVPrice History
Key Moments
First recorded
45% YES
Apr 1, 2026
Trough probability
0% YES — lowest in period
Apr 8, 2026
Crossed 50% — now favored YES
51%
Apr 6, 2026
Biggest move: -44.5pp
45% → 0%
Apr 8, 2026
Peak probability
51% YES — highest in period
Apr 6, 2026
Current
0% YES (+0.0pp recent)
Apr 8, 2026
Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
+0.0%
EV per $ wagered
+0.0%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this