ForecastMind

Market Closed

This market has resolved and is no longer trading. Prices shown are the final recorded values.

Markets/Penguins vs. Devils
Share on X

Penguins vs. Devils

Closed April 9, 2026

Polymarket Price

100%YES
0%NO

Volume 24h

$1.3M

Liquidity

$360K

Bid / Ask

93% / 94%

Spread

1.00pp

Expert Signal

74%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp
confidence21%
methodensemble

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Penguins vs. Devils" at 100% YES / 0% NO. In the last 24 hours, $1.3M has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 74%. The bid-ask spread is 1.00 percentage points. The market closes on April 9, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-04-10). "Penguins vs. Devils." Prediction market snapshot: YES 100%, NO 0%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1576093

Outcome Markets5 markets

This event has 5 active outcome markets. Penguins vs. Devils: 100%, Penguins vs. Devils: O/U 4.5: 100%, Penguins vs. Devils: O/U 5.5: 93%.

Topic Intelligence

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

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Price History

+24.0pp

Key Moments

First recorded

51% YES

Apr 9, 2026

Dropped below 50% — now favored NO

50%

Apr 9, 2026

Crossed 50% — now favored YES

67%

Apr 10, 2026

Biggest move: +17.5pp

50% → 67%

Apr 10, 2026

Current

75% YES (+7.5pp recent)

Apr 10, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

%
1%Market: YES 99%99%
Buy YES@ 99¢

+0.0%

EV per $ wagered

Buy NO@ 1¢

+0.0%

EV per $ wagered

Your estimate matches the market price — no edge on either side.

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this