ForecastMind

Market Closed

This market has resolved and is no longer trading. Prices shown are the final recorded values.

Markets/Senators vs. Devils
Share on X

Senators vs. Devils

Closed April 12, 2026

ForecastMind Intelligence Score
Low confidence · 2 signals
47%FIS

Markets appear correctly priced driven by RUS neutral ELI → +1.0pp avg (n=48) (low confidence — limited signal data).

Signal breakdown

HistoryRUS neutral ELI → +1.0pp avg (n=48) [recent event]
-0.4pp
MacroUSD/RUB -0.6% ↓, Oil +9.2% ↑, VIX -1.3% ↓
-0.1pp
Live compute12:32 AM

Polymarket Price

0%YES
100%NO

Volume 24h

$1.2M

Liquidity

$371K

Bid / Ask

68% / 69%

Spread

1.00pp

Expert Signal

48%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp
confidence21%
methodensemble

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Senators vs. Devils" at 0% YES / 100% NO. In the last 24 hours, $1.2M has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 48%. The bid-ask spread is 1.00 percentage points. The market closes on April 12, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-04-13). "Senators vs. Devils." Prediction market snapshot: YES 0%, NO 100%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1607474

Outcome Markets5 markets

This event has 5 active outcome markets. Senators vs. Devils: O/U 4.5: 100%, Senators vs. Devils: O/U 5.5: 80%, Senators vs. Devils: O/U 6.5: 71%.

Topic Intelligence

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

Export CSV

Price History

-33.0pp

Key Moments

First recorded

49% YES

Apr 12, 2026

Biggest move: -32.0pp

48% → 16%

Apr 13, 2026

Current

16% YES (-32.0pp recent)

Apr 13, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

%
1%Market: YES 1%99%
Buy YES@ 1¢

+0.0%

EV per $ wagered

Buy NO@ 99¢

+0.0%

EV per $ wagered

Your estimate matches the market price — no edge on either side.

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this