Will Anish Giri win the 2026 FIDE Candidates Tournament?
Closes April 17, 2026
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$17K
Liquidity
$13K
Bid / Ask
2% / 2%
Spread
0.40pp
Expert Signal
2%
Bayesian YES estimate
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Will Anish Giri win the 2026 FIDE Candidates Tournament?" at 2% YES / 98% NO. In the last 24 hours, $17K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 2%. The bid-ask spread is 0.40 percentage points. The market closes on April 17, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-04-01). "Will Anish Giri win the 2026 FIDE Candidates Tournament?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 2%, NO 98%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1632628
This event has 8 active outcome markets. Fabiano Caruana: 53%, Javokhir Sindarov: 29%, Praggnanandhaa R: 7%.
Anish Giri win the 2026 FIDE Candidates Tournament?
Topic Intelligence
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Price History
Export CSVPrice History
Key Moments
First recorded
4% YES
Mar 30, 2026
Current
4% YES (+0.1pp recent)
Mar 30, 2026
Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
+0.0%
EV per $ wagered
+0.0%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this