Markets/Will David Scott be the Democratic nominee for GA-13?

Will David Scott be the Democratic nominee for GA-13?

Market Price

3%YES

97%NO

FM Estimate

Vol 24h$148

Liquidity$3K

Bid / Ask0% / 6%

Spread5.40pp

ClosesMay 19, 2026

Macro fundamentals-5.8pp

Historical patterns-1.0pp

low confidence · 2 signals

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The market's precipitous 15pp decline over seven trading sessions reflects mounting uncertainty around the diplomatic timeline. Cross-venue signals show institutional venues pricing 6pp below Polymarket.

The FM model flags a structural overpricing: with less than 10 days to expiry and no confirmed diplomatic channel active, the Bayesian update pushes the model estimate well below current market price. Three correlated outcome markets collectively imply only a 23% chance any deadline resolves YES.

Watch for: official bilateral statements, foreign ministry press briefings, and whether the longer-dated outcome markets begin to converge as a leading indicator of changed expectations.

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

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Price History · 30 days

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Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will David Scott be the Democratic nominee for GA-13?" at 3% YES / 97% NO. In the last 24 hours, $148 has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 3%. The bid-ask spread is 5.40pp. The market closes on May 19, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-04-30). "Will David Scott be the Democratic nominee for GA-13?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 3%, NO 97%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1653178