Markets/Will Jasmine Clark be the Democratic nominee for GA-13?

Will Jasmine Clark be the Democratic nominee for GA-13?

Market Price

80%YES

20%NO

FM Estimate

77%

Gap Signal

↓Overpriced

2.9pp

Vol 24h$42

Liquidity$11K

Bid / Ask78% / 81%

Spread3.00pp

ClosesMay 19, 2026

Macro fundamentals-5.5pp

Historical patterns-1.0pp

medium confidence · 2 signals

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The market's precipitous 15pp decline over seven trading sessions reflects mounting uncertainty around the diplomatic timeline. Cross-venue signals show institutional venues pricing 6pp below Polymarket.

The FM model flags a structural overpricing: with less than 10 days to expiry and no confirmed diplomatic channel active, the Bayesian update pushes the model estimate well below current market price. Three correlated outcome markets collectively imply only a 23% chance any deadline resolves YES.

Watch for: official bilateral statements, foreign ministry press briefings, and whether the longer-dated outcome markets begin to converge as a leading indicator of changed expectations.

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

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Wikipedia Attention

Outcome Markets7 markets

7 deadline markets. Combined YES = 102% — 2pp excess suggests collective overpricing.

Jasmine Clark be the Democratic nominee for G

Jasmine Clark be the Democratic nominee for GA-13

80%

Everton Blair Jr. be the Democratic nominee f

Everton Blair Jr. be the Democratic nominee for GA-1

16%

Heavenly Kimes be the Democratic nominee for

Heavenly Kimes be the Democratic nominee for GA-13

Price History · 30 days

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Price History

No historical data yet

Cross-Venue Intelligence2 venues

VenueProb.YES %vs Poly

Polymarket

—anchor

PredictIt

——

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will Jasmine Clark be the Democratic nominee for GA-13?" at 80% YES / 20% NO. In the last 24 hours, $42 has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 80%. The bid-ask spread is 3.00pp. The market closes on May 19, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-04-30). "Will Jasmine Clark be the Democratic nominee for GA-13?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 80%, NO 20%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1653180