Military action against Iran ends by April 13, 2026?
Closes April 30, 2026
ForecastMind sees this +1.6pp above current market price; market at 75% may be underpriced with macro signals showing Oil +1.7% ↑, VIX +1.9% ↑, Gold +0.4% ↑ (low confidence — limited signal data).
Signal breakdown
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$22
Liquidity
$1K
Bid / Ask
57% / 93%
Spread
36.00pp
Expert Signal
75%
Bayesian YES estimate
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Military action against Iran ends by April 13, 2026?" at 75% YES / 25% NO. In the last 24 hours, $22 has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 75%. The bid-ask spread is 36.00 percentage points. The market closes on April 30, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-04-09). "Military action against Iran ends by April 13, 2026?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 75%, NO 25%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1706354
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Price History
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Order Book (YES)
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EV per $ wagered
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EV per $ wagered
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Backtest Strategy
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