Military action against Iran ends by April 22, 2026?
Closes April 30, 2026
ForecastMind sees this +1.2pp above current market price; market at 90% may be underpriced with macro signals showing Oil +1.3% ↑, VIX +1.8% ↑, Gold +0.4% ↑ (low confidence — limited signal data).
Signal breakdown
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$44
Liquidity
$6K
Bid / Ask
85% / 93%
Spread
8.00pp
Expert Signal
91%
Bayesian YES estimate
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Military action against Iran ends by April 22, 2026?" at 91% YES / 9% NO. In the last 24 hours, $44 has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 91%. The bid-ask spread is 8.00 percentage points. The market closes on April 30, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-04-09). "Military action against Iran ends by April 22, 2026?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 91%, NO 9%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1706363
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Price History
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Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
+0.6%
EV per $ wagered
-5.3%
EV per $ wagered
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Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this