Military action against Iran ends on April 8, 2026?
Closes April 30, 2026
Markets appear correctly priced with macro signals showing Oil +7.0% ↑, VIX -2.7% ↓, Gold -0.1% ↓ (low confidence — limited signal data).
Signal breakdown
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$2K
Liquidity
$7K
Bid / Ask
1% / 4%
Spread
2.30pp
Expert Signal
2%
Bayesian YES estimate
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Military action against Iran ends on April 8, 2026?" at 2% YES / 98% NO. In the last 24 hours, $2K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 2%. The bid-ask spread is 2.30 percentage points. The market closes on April 30, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-04-05). "Military action against Iran ends on April 8, 2026?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 2%, NO 98%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1706398
This event has 22 active outcome markets. Military action against Iran continues throug: 74%, Military action against Iran ends on April 30: 3%, Military action against Iran ends on April 8,: 2%.
Military action against Iran ends on April 8, 2026?
Topic Intelligence
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Price History
Export CSVPrice History
Key Moments
First recorded
1% YES
Apr 5, 2026
Current
3% YES (-1.3pp recent)
Apr 5, 2026
Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
-18.4%
EV per $ wagered
+0.5%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this