Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in another European country?
Closes June 30, 2026
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$2K
Liquidity
$6K
Bid / Ask
0% / 2%
Spread
1.80pp
Expert Signal
2%
Bayesian YES estimate
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in another European country?" at 1% YES / 99% NO. In the last 24 hours, $2K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 2%. The bid-ask spread is 1.80 percentage points. The market closes on June 30, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-04-07). "Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in another European country?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 1%, NO 99%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1709277
This event has 3 active outcome markets. next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in another: 1%, next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in another: 1%, next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in another: 1%. Implied probability of none resolving YES: ~97%.
next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in another European
Topic Intelligence
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Price History
Export CSVPrice History
Key Moments
First recorded
1% YES
Apr 6, 2026
Current
1% YES (-0.1pp recent)
Apr 6, 2026
Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
-23.1%
EV per $ wagered
+0.3%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this