Markets/JD Vance diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 10?

JD Vance diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 10?

Data as of Apr 10, 2026, 08:24 AM UTC

Closes April 30, 2026

ForecastMind Intelligence Score

Low confidence · 2 signals

23%FIS

Markets appear correctly priced driven by ISR positive AGR → -1.0pp avg (n=64) (low confidence — limited signal data).

Signal breakdown

HistoryISR positive AGR → -1.0pp avg (n=64) [recent event]

-1.0pp

MacroOil +1.6% ↑, VIX -7.4% ↓, Gold +1.0% ↑

+1.4pp

Pre-computed · refreshes every 6h03:35 AM

Polymarket Price

22%YES

78%NO

Volume 24h

$209K

Liquidity

$14K

Bid / Ask

21% / 23%

Spread

1.70pp

Expert Signal

22%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp

confidence21%

methodensemble

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "JD Vance diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 10?" at 22% YES / 78% NO. In the last 24 hours, $209K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 22%. The bid-ask spread is 1.70 percentage points. The market closes on April 30, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-04-10). "JD Vance diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 10?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 22%, NO 78%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1709412

Outcome Markets4 markets

This event has 4 active outcome markets. April 30, 2026: 94%, April 30: 93%, April 15, 2026: 89%.

US x Iran meeting by April 30, 2026?

94%