Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2026-04-21?

Market Price

49%YES

51%NO

Vol 24h$343K

Liquidity$240K

Bid / Ask9% / 17%

Spread7.80pp

ClosedApr 21, 2026

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The market's precipitous 15pp decline over seven trading sessions reflects mounting uncertainty around the diplomatic timeline. Cross-venue signals show institutional venues pricing 6pp below Polymarket.

The FM model flags a structural overpricing: with less than 10 days to expiry and no confirmed diplomatic channel active, the Bayesian update pushes the model estimate well below current market price. Three correlated outcome markets collectively imply only a 23% chance any deadline resolves YES.

Watch for: official bilateral statements, foreign ministry press briefings, and whether the longer-dated outcome markets begin to converge as a leading indicator of changed expectations.

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

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Wikipedia Attention

Outcome Markets3 markets

This event has 3 active outcome markets. FC Internazionale Milano: 49%, Spread: FC Internazionale Milano (-1.5): 2%, Spread: FC Internazionale Milano (-2.5): 0%. Implied probability of none resolving YES: ~50%.

FC Internazionale Milano win on 2026-04-21?

49%

Spread: FC Internazionale Milano (-1.5)

Spread: FC Internazionale Milano (-2.5)

Price History · 30 days

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Price History

MarketFM Estimate

+50.5pp

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2026-04-21?" at 49% YES / 51% NO. In the last 24 hours, $343K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 6%. The bid-ask spread is 7.80pp. The market closes on April 21, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-04-23). "Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2026-04-21?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 49%, NO 51%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1716498