ForecastMind
Markets/Spread: Arsenal FC (-1.5)
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Spread: Arsenal FC (-1.5)

Closes April 7, 2026

Polymarket Price

26%YES
74%NO

Volume 24h

$40K

Liquidity

$137K

Bid / Ask

26% / 27%

Spread

1.00pp

Expert Signal

28%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp
confidence21%
methodensemble

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Spread: Arsenal FC (-1.5)" at 26% YES / 74% NO. In the last 24 hours, $40K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 28%. The bid-ask spread is 1.00 percentage points. The market closes on April 7, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-04-07). "Spread: Arsenal FC (-1.5)." Prediction market snapshot: YES 26%, NO 74%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1718892

Outcome Markets2 markets

This event has 2 active outcome markets. Spread: Arsenal FC (-1.5): 26%, Spread: Arsenal FC (-2.5): 12%. Implied probability of none resolving YES: ~63%.

Spread: Arsenal FC (-1.5)

26%
Spread: Arsenal FC (-2.5)
12%

Topic Intelligence

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

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Price History

-1.0pp

Key Moments

First recorded

28% YES

Apr 7, 2026

Current

28% YES (+0.0pp recent)

Apr 7, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

%
1%Market: YES 26%99%
Buy YES@ 26¢

+0.0%

EV per $ wagered

Buy NO@ 74¢

+0.0%

EV per $ wagered

Your estimate matches the market price — no edge on either side.

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this