ForecastMind
Markets/Will the DHS shutdown end between April 5-8, 2026?
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Will the DHS shutdown end between April 5-8, 2026?

Closes April 30, 2026

Polymarket Price

2%YES
98%NO

Volume 24h

$822

Liquidity

$22K

Bid / Ask

2% / 3%

Spread

1.20pp

Expert Signal

2%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp
confidence21%
methodensemble

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will the DHS shutdown end between April 5-8, 2026?" at 2% YES / 98% NO. In the last 24 hours, $822 has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 2%. The bid-ask spread is 1.20 percentage points. The market closes on April 30, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-31). "Will the DHS shutdown end between April 5-8, 2026?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 2%, NO 98%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1723667

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

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Price History

+2.1pp

Key Moments

First recorded

0% YES

Mar 29, 2026

Current

3% YES (+0.5pp recent)

Mar 30, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

%
1%Market: YES 2%99%
Buy YES@ 2¢

-13.0%

EV per $ wagered

Buy NO@ 98¢
Edge

+0.3%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly13.0%
½ Kelly6.5%
Buy NO—+0.3% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 13.0%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this