ForecastMind
Markets/Will the DHS shutdown end between April 17-20, 2026?
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Will the DHS shutdown end between April 17-20, 2026?

Closes April 30, 2026

Polymarket Price

19%YES
81%NO

Volume 24h

$2K

Liquidity

$12K

Bid / Ask

18% / 20%

Spread

1.50pp

Expert Signal

19%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp
confidence21%
methodensemble

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will the DHS shutdown end between April 17-20, 2026?" at 19% YES / 81% NO. In the last 24 hours, $2K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 19%. The bid-ask spread is 1.50 percentage points. The market closes on April 30, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-31). "Will the DHS shutdown end between April 17-20, 2026?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 19%, NO 81%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1723670

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

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Price History

+6.7pp

Key Moments

First recorded

7% YES

Mar 29, 2026

Biggest move: +6.2pp

7% → 13%

Mar 29, 2026

Current

14% YES (+0.2pp recent)

Mar 30, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

%
1%Market: YES 19%99%
Buy YES@ 19¢

-0.8%

EV per $ wagered

Buy NO@ 81¢
Edge

+0.2%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly0.8%
½ Kelly0.4%
Buy NO—+0.2% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 0.8%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this