ForecastMind
Markets/Will the DHS shutdown end between April 25-28, 2026?
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Will the DHS shutdown end between April 25-28, 2026?

Closes April 30, 2026

Polymarket Price

3%YES
97%NO

Volume 24h

$408

Liquidity

$9K

Bid / Ask

2% / 3%

Spread

1.50pp

Expert Signal

3%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp
confidence21%
methodensemble

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will the DHS shutdown end between April 25-28, 2026?" at 3% YES / 97% NO. In the last 24 hours, $408 has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 3%. The bid-ask spread is 1.50 percentage points. The market closes on April 30, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-31). "Will the DHS shutdown end between April 25-28, 2026?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 3%, NO 97%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1723672

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

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Price History

+0.9pp

Key Moments

First recorded

2% YES

Mar 29, 2026

Current

3% YES (+0.4pp recent)

Mar 30, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

%
1%Market: YES 3%99%
Buy YES@ 3¢
Edge

+13.2%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly0.4%
½ Kelly0.2%
Buy NO@ 97¢

-0.4%

EV per $ wagered

Buy YES—+13.2% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 0.4%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this