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Market Closed

This market has resolved and is no longer trading. Prices shown are the final recorded values.

Markets/Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from March 28 to March 30, 2026?
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Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from March 28 to March 30, 2026?

Closed March 30, 2026

Polymarket Price

100%YES
0%NO

Volume 24h

$443K

Liquidity

$106K

Expert Signal

98%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market-1.0pp
confidence21%
methodensemble

Price History

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Price History

+75.0pp

Key Moments

First recorded

25% YES

Mar 28, 2026

Crossed 50% — now favored YES

53%

Mar 29, 2026

Biggest move: +14.9pp

85% → 99%

Mar 30, 2026

Current

100% YES (+0.4pp recent)

Mar 30, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

%
1%Market: YES 99%99%
Buy YES@ 99¢

+0.0%

EV per $ wagered

Buy NO@ 1¢

+0.0%

EV per $ wagered

Your estimate matches the market price — no edge on either side.

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from March 28 to March 30, 2026?" at 100% YES / 0% NO. In the last 24 hours, $443K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 98%. The market closes on March 30, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-30). "Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from March 28 to March 30, 2026?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 100%, NO 0%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1731389

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.