Will Columbus Crew win on 2026-04-22?

Market Price

96%YES

4%NO

Vol 24h$327K

Liquidity$9K

Bid / Ask95% / 96%

Spread1.00pp

ClosedApr 22, 2026

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The market's precipitous 15pp decline over seven trading sessions reflects mounting uncertainty around the diplomatic timeline. Cross-venue signals show institutional venues pricing 6pp below Polymarket.

The FM model flags a structural overpricing: with less than 10 days to expiry and no confirmed diplomatic channel active, the Bayesian update pushes the model estimate well below current market price. Three correlated outcome markets collectively imply only a 23% chance any deadline resolves YES.

Watch for: official bilateral statements, foreign ministry press briefings, and whether the longer-dated outcome markets begin to converge as a leading indicator of changed expectations.

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

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Wikipedia Attention

Outcome Markets3 markets

This event has 3 active outcome markets. Columbus Crew: 96%, Toronto FC: 0%, FC Cincinnati: 0%. Implied probability of none resolving YES: ~4%.

Columbus Crew win on 2026-04-22?

96%

Toronto FC win on 2026-04-22?

FC Cincinnati win on 2026-04-22?

Price History · 30 days

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Price History

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Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will Columbus Crew win on 2026-04-22?" at 96% YES / 4% NO. In the last 24 hours, $327K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 96%. The bid-ask spread is 1.00pp. The market closes on April 22, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-04-23). "Will Columbus Crew win on 2026-04-22?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 96%, NO 4%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1731430