ForecastMind
Markets/Will Progressive Bulgaria (PB) win the 2026 Bulgarian Parliamentary election by 15-20%?
Share on X

Will Progressive Bulgaria (PB) win the 2026 Bulgarian Parliamentary election by 15-20%?

Closes April 19, 2026

Polymarket Price

21%YES
79%NO

Volume 24h

$22

Liquidity

$4K

Bid / Ask

19% / 23%

Spread

4.00pp

Expert Signal

21%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp
confidence21%
methodensemble

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will Progressive Bulgaria (PB) win the 2026 Bulgarian Parliamentary election by 15-20%?" at 21% YES / 79% NO. In the last 24 hours, $22 has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 21%. The bid-ask spread is 4.00 percentage points. The market closes on April 19, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-31). "Will Progressive Bulgaria (PB) win the 2026 Bulgarian Parliamentary election by 15-20%?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 21%, NO 79%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1742066

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

Export CSV

Price History

No historical data yet

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

%
1%Market: YES 21%99%
Buy YES@ 21¢

+0.0%

EV per $ wagered

Buy NO@ 79¢

+0.0%

EV per $ wagered

Your estimate matches the market price — no edge on either side.

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this