Will Italy win on 2026-03-31?
Closes March 31, 2026
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$110K
Liquidity
$271K
Bid / Ask
65% / 66%
Spread
1.00pp
Expert Signal
66%
Bayesian YES estimate
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Will Italy win on 2026-03-31?" at 66% YES / 34% NO. In the last 24 hours, $110K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 66%. The bid-ask spread is 1.00 percentage points. The market closes on March 31, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-03-31). "Will Italy win on 2026-03-31?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 66%, NO 34%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1743552
This event has 6 active outcome markets. Italy: 66%, Türkiye: 48%, Denmark: 46%.
Italy win on 2026-03-31?
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Price History
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Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
+0.8%
EV per $ wagered
-1.4%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this