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Markets/Will White House post 200+ posts from March 31 to April 7, 2026?
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Will White House post 200+ posts from March 31 to April 7, 2026?

Closes April 7, 2026

Polymarket Price

38%YES
62%NO

Volume 24h

$5K

Liquidity

$457

Bid / Ask

36% / 41%

Spread

5.50pp

Expert Signal

38%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp
confidence21%
methodensemble

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will White House post 200+ posts from March 31 to April 7, 2026?" at 38% YES / 62% NO. In the last 24 hours, $5K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 38%. The bid-ask spread is 5.50 percentage points. The market closes on April 7, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-04-04). "Will White House post 200+ posts from March 31 to April 7, 2026?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 38%, NO 62%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1752766

Outcome Markets2 markets

This event has 2 active outcome markets. White House post 200+ posts from March 31 to : 38%, Donald Trump post 200+ Truth Social posts fro: 0%. Implied probability of none resolving YES: ~61%.

White House post 200+ posts from March 31 to April 7, 2

38%

Topic Intelligence

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

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Price History

No historical data yet

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

%
1%Market: YES 38%99%
Buy YES@ 38¢

-0.7%

EV per $ wagered

Buy NO@ 62¢
Edge

+0.4%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly0.7%
½ Kelly0.3%
Buy NO+0.4% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 0.7%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this