ForecastMind
Markets/Atlanta Braves vs. Arizona Diamondbacks
Share on X

Atlanta Braves vs. Arizona Diamondbacks

Closes April 11, 2026

Polymarket Price

48%YES
53%NO

Volume 24h

$447K

Liquidity

$65K

Expert Signal

98%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market-1.0pp
confidence21%
methodensemble

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Atlanta Braves vs. Arizona Diamondbacks" at 48% YES / 52% NO. In the last 24 hours, $447K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 98%. The market closes on April 11, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-04-04). "Atlanta Braves vs. Arizona Diamondbacks." Prediction market snapshot: YES 48%, NO 52%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1760086

Topic Intelligence

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

Export CSV

Price History

+51.5pp

Key Moments

First recorded

49% YES

Apr 4, 2026

Crossed 50% — now favored YES

52%

Apr 4, 2026

Biggest move: +33.0pp

60% → 93%

Apr 4, 2026

Peak probability

100% YES — highest in period

Apr 4, 2026

Current

100% YES (+0.0pp recent)

Apr 4, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

%
1%Market: YES 48%99%
Buy YES@ 48¢
Edge

+1.1%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly1.0%
½ Kelly0.5%
Buy NO@ 53¢

-1.0%

EV per $ wagered

Buy YES+1.1% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 1.0%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this