Markets/Spread: Thunder (-13.5)

Spread: Thunder (-13.5)

Data as of Mar 30, 2026, 07:32 PM UTC

Closes March 31, 2026

Polymarket Price

45%YES

56%NO

Volume 24h

$12K

Liquidity

$54K

Bid / Ask

43% / 45%

Spread

2.00pp

Expert Signal

46%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp

confidence21%

methodensemble

Event Distribution

Spread: Thunder (-12.5)

Full event →

Spread: Thunder (-11.5)

52%

Spread: Thunder (-12.5)

48%

1H Spread: Thunder (-7.5)

48%

Spread: Thunder (-13.5)

46%

Spread: Thunder (-14.5)

43%

5 related outcomes · highlighted = this market

Price History

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Price History

-0.5pp

Key Moments

First recorded

46% YES

Mar 30, 2026

Current

45% YES (+0.0pp recent)

Mar 30, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

Your probability estimate

1%Market: YES 45%99%

Buy YES@ 45¢

Edge

+1.1%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly0.9%

½ Kelly0.5%

Buy NO@ 55¢

-0.9%

EV per $ wagered

Buy YES—+1.1% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 0.9%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

Entry threshold

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

From date

To date

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Spread: Thunder (-13.5)" at 45% YES / 55% NO. In the last 24 hours, $12K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 46%. The bid-ask spread is 2.00 percentage points. The market closes on March 31, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-30). "Spread: Thunder (-13.5)." Prediction market snapshot: YES 45%, NO 55%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1785689

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.