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Markets/Any of the stolen KitKats recovered by April 5?
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Any of the stolen KitKats recovered by April 5?

Closes April 5, 2026

Polymarket Price

12%YES
88%NO

Volume 24h

$44K

Liquidity

$70K

Bid / Ask

11% / 13%

Spread

2.00pp

Expert Signal

12%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp
confidence21%
methodensemble

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Any of the stolen KitKats recovered by April 5?" at 12% YES / 88% NO. In the last 24 hours, $44K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 12%. The bid-ask spread is 2.00 percentage points. The market closes on April 5, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-04-02). "Any of the stolen KitKats recovered by April 5?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 12%, NO 88%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1792363

Topic Intelligence

Cross-Venue Intelligence2 venues
VenueYES %vs Poly
Polymarket12%anchor
Manifold——

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

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Price History

+0.5pp

Key Moments

First recorded

9% YES

Apr 1, 2026

Current

10% YES (+0.0pp recent)

Apr 1, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

%
1%Market: YES 12%99%
Buy YES@ 12¢

+0.0%

EV per $ wagered

Buy NO@ 88¢

+0.0%

EV per $ wagered

Your estimate matches the market price — no edge on either side.

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this