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Markets/Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by April 15?
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Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by April 15?

Closes April 15, 2026

Polymarket Price

30%YES
71%NO

Volume 24h

$168K

Liquidity

$19K

Bid / Ask

43% / 45%

Spread

2.00pp

Expert Signal

34%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market-0.8pp
confidence50%
methodensemble

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by April 15?" at 30% YES / 70% NO. In the last 24 hours, $168K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 34%. The bid-ask spread is 2.00 percentage points. The market closes on April 15, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-04-07). "Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by April 15?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 30%, NO 70%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1797341

Outcome Markets2 markets

This event has 2 active outcome markets. April 30: 46%, April 15: 30%. Implied probability of none resolving YES: ~25%.

Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by April 30?
46%

Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by April 15?

30%

Topic Intelligence

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

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Price History

-6.5pp

Key Moments

First recorded

38% YES

Apr 7, 2026

Current

31% YES (-1.5pp recent)

Apr 7, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

%
1%Market: YES 30%99%
Buy YES@ 30¢
Edge

+1.7%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly0.7%
½ Kelly0.4%
Buy NO@ 71¢

-0.7%

EV per $ wagered

Buy YES—+1.7% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 0.7%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this