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Market Closed

This market has resolved and is no longer trading. Prices shown are the final recorded values.

Markets/Sam Merrill: Points O/U 12.5
Share on X

Sam Merrill: Points O/U 12.5

Closed April 1, 2026

Polymarket Price

36%YES
64%NO

Volume 24h

$1K

Liquidity

$10

Expert Signal

2%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+100.0pp
confidence21%
methodensemble

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Sam Merrill: Points O/U 12.5" at 36% YES / 64% NO. In the last 24 hours, $1K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 2%. The market closes on April 1, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-04-03). "Sam Merrill: Points O/U 12.5." Prediction market snapshot: YES 36%, NO 64%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1798757

Topic Intelligence

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

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Price History

-0.1pp

Key Moments

First recorded

0% YES

Mar 31, 2026

Biggest move: -48.0pp

48% → 0%

Apr 1, 2026

Peak probability

48% YES — highest in period

Apr 1, 2026

Current

0% YES (+0.0pp recent)

Apr 1, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

%
1%Market: YES 36%99%
Buy YES@ 36¢

-0.1%

EV per $ wagered

Buy NO@ 64¢
Edge

+0.1%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly0.1%
½ Kelly0.1%
Buy NO—+0.1% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 0.1%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this