Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027?
Closes June 30, 2027
ForecastMind sees this -1.7pp below current market price; market at 14% may be overpriced with macro signals showing USD/CNY -0.046 ↓, S&P +1.0% ↑, Oil +7.0% ↑ (low confidence — limited signal data).
Signal breakdown
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$36K
Liquidity
$106K
Bid / Ask
14% / 15%
Spread
1.00pp
Expert Signal
14%
Bayesian YES estimate
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027?" at 14% YES / 86% NO. In the last 24 hours, $36K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 14%. The bid-ask spread is 1.00 percentage points. The market closes on June 30, 2027.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-04-05). "Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 14%, NO 86%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1811266
This event has 5 active outcome markets. December 31, 2027: 21%, June 30, 2027: 14%, end of 2026: 10%. Implied probability of none resolving YES: ~46%.
China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027?
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✦ AI Analysis
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Price History
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Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
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EV per $ wagered
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EV per $ wagered
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Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this