Markets/Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2027?

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2027?

Market Price

48%YES

52%NO

FM Estimate

52%

Gap Signal

↑Underpriced

3.8pp

Vol 24h$50K

Liquidity$148K

Bid / Ask45% / 47%

Spread2.00pp

ClosesDec 31, 2027

Macro fundamentals+3.8pp

low confidence · 1 signals

✦ Deep AI Analysis🔒 PRO

The market's precipitous 15pp decline over seven trading sessions reflects mounting uncertainty around the diplomatic timeline. Cross-venue signals show institutional venues pricing 6pp below Polymarket.

The FM model flags a structural overpricing: with less than 10 days to expiry and no confirmed diplomatic channel active, the Bayesian update pushes the model estimate well below current market price. Three correlated outcome markets collectively imply only a 23% chance any deadline resolves YES.

Watch for: official bilateral statements, foreign ministry press briefings, and whether the longer-dated outcome markets begin to converge as a leading indicator of changed expectations.

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

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Wikipedia Attention

Outcome Markets5 markets

This event has 5 active outcome markets. April 30, 2026: 92%, end of 2027: 48%, end of 2026: 26%.