ForecastMind
Markets/Spread: Raptors (-13.5)
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Spread: Raptors (-13.5)

Closes April 2, 2026

Polymarket Price

48%YES
53%NO

Volume 24h

$191K

Liquidity

$86K

Bid / Ask

47% / 48%

Spread

1.00pp

Expert Signal

48%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp
confidence21%
methodensemble

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Spread: Raptors (-13.5)" at 48% YES / 52% NO. In the last 24 hours, $191K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 48%. The bid-ask spread is 1.00 percentage points. The market closes on April 2, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-04-01). "Spread: Raptors (-13.5)." Prediction market snapshot: YES 48%, NO 52%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1813686

Outcome Markets4 markets

This event has 4 active outcome markets. Spread: Raptors (-11.5): 54%, Spread: Raptors (-12.5): 50%, Spread: Raptors (-13.5): 48%.

Spread: Raptors (-11.5)
54%
Spread: Raptors (-12.5)
50%

Spread: Raptors (-13.5)

48%
Spread: Raptors (-14.5)
44%

Topic Intelligence

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

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Price History

-2.0pp

Key Moments

First recorded

49% YES

Apr 1, 2026

Current

47% YES (+2.0pp recent)

Apr 1, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

%
1%Market: YES 48%99%
Buy YES@ 48¢
Edge

+1.1%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly1.0%
½ Kelly0.5%
Buy NO@ 53¢

-1.0%

EV per $ wagered

Buy YES—+1.1% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 1.0%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this