Genius FDV above $80M one day after launch?
Closes January 1, 2028
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$3K
Liquidity
$14K
Bid / Ask
81% / 84%
Spread
3.00pp
Expert Signal
83%
Bayesian YES estimate
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Genius FDV above $80M one day after launch?" at 83% YES / 17% NO. In the last 24 hours, $3K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 83%. The bid-ask spread is 3.00 percentage points. The market closes on January 1, 2028.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-04-10). "Genius FDV above $80M one day after launch?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 83%, NO 17%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1818147
Topic Intelligence
✦ AI Analysis
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Price History
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Key Moments
First recorded
85% YES
Apr 7, 2026
Current
83% YES (+1.0pp recent)
Apr 8, 2026
Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
+0.6%
EV per $ wagered
-2.9%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this