Genius FDV above $500M one day after launch?
Closes January 1, 2028
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$2K
Liquidity
$27K
Bid / Ask
6% / 6%
Spread
0.20pp
Expert Signal
6%
Bayesian YES estimate
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Genius FDV above $500M one day after launch?" at 6% YES / 94% NO. In the last 24 hours, $2K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 6%. The bid-ask spread is 0.20 percentage points. The market closes on January 1, 2028.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-04-10). "Genius FDV above $500M one day after launch?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 6%, NO 94%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1818151
Topic Intelligence
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Price History
Export CSVPrice History
Key Moments
First recorded
5% YES
Apr 7, 2026
Biggest move: +8.3pp
4% → 13%
Apr 8, 2026
Peak probability
13% YES — highest in period
Apr 8, 2026
Current
7% YES (-0.2pp recent)
Apr 8, 2026
Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
-1.6%
EV per $ wagered
+0.1%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this