ForecastMind
Markets/Cincinnati Reds vs. Miami Marlins
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Cincinnati Reds vs. Miami Marlins

Closes April 16, 2026

Polymarket Price

48%YES
53%NO

Volume 24h

$556K

Liquidity

$652K

Expert Signal

2%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+100.0pp
confidence21%
methodensemble

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Cincinnati Reds vs. Miami Marlins" at 48% YES / 52% NO. In the last 24 hours, $556K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 2%. The market closes on April 16, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-04-09). "Cincinnati Reds vs. Miami Marlins." Prediction market snapshot: YES 48%, NO 52%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1844632

Outcome Markets12 markets

This event has 12 active outcome markets. Cincinnati Reds vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 7.5: 100%, Cincinnati Reds vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 8.5: 100%, Spread: Miami Marlins (-1.5): 100%.

Topic Intelligence

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

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Price History

-46.4pp

Key Moments

First recorded

47% YES

Apr 9, 2026

Biggest move: -29.0pp

33% → 4%

Apr 9, 2026

Current

0% YES (-3.5pp recent)

Apr 9, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

%
1%Market: YES 48%99%
Buy YES@ 48¢
Edge

+1.1%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly1.0%
½ Kelly0.5%
Buy NO@ 53¢

-1.0%

EV per $ wagered

Buy YES+1.1% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 1.0%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this