ForecastMind
Markets/Athletics vs. New York Yankees
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Athletics vs. New York Yankees

Closes April 16, 2026

Polymarket Price

32%YES
69%NO

Volume 24h

$781K

Liquidity

$93K

Expert Signal

98%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market-1.0pp
confidence21%
methodensemble

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Athletics vs. New York Yankees" at 32% YES / 68% NO. In the last 24 hours, $781K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 98%. The market closes on April 16, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-04-09). "Athletics vs. New York Yankees." Prediction market snapshot: YES 32%, NO 68%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1844640

Outcome Markets2 markets

This event has 2 active outcome markets. Athletics vs. New York Yankees: 32%, there be a run scored in the first inning?: A: 0%. Implied probability of none resolving YES: ~68%.

Topic Intelligence

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

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Price History

+64.5pp

Key Moments

First recorded

36% YES

Apr 9, 2026

Crossed 50% — now favored YES

100%

Apr 9, 2026

Biggest move: +62.5pp

38% → 100%

Apr 9, 2026

Peak probability

100% YES — highest in period

Apr 9, 2026

Current

100% YES (+0.0pp recent)

Apr 9, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

%
1%Market: YES 32%99%
Buy YES@ 32¢
Edge

+1.6%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly0.7%
½ Kelly0.4%
Buy NO@ 69¢

-0.7%

EV per $ wagered

Buy YES+1.6% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 0.7%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this